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Not even close, Fallout 4 will dominate it in sales.
I will pick up Tomb Raider first though, since it can be completed sooner.
The one thing people are overlooking is during this time of the year, Microsoft can afford to release so many big titles because owners of the system, parents, and significant others usually buy more than one game for the person. I'm usually get around 4-5 new titles around this time every year, on top of the 2 I usually buy myself.

Growing up this was the only time I could count on getting a new game or two from the folks when I was a kid.