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AG80 said:

Where are you getting these calculations from? Guerilla does have two different teams, I'm talking about their Amsterdam studio. Horizon was probably conceptualized in 2010 and began development early in 2011. So about 5 years of development, which is par for the course for an open-world game..

Guerilla Amsterdam has 1 team with multiple concepts in flux as any studio would. They make 1 game every 3 years, thats one studio. They start making 2 games every 3 years, they're a 2 game studio.

Development for KZ: SF began in early 2011, it's in the link I showed you.

A few months before Killzone 3 launched in February 2011 its designers began working on the follow-up - what would eventually become Shadow Fall.

That same link is Geurillas announcing - a few months before KZ:DF launched - they were working on a new IP, they didn't announce this in 2009.

AG80 said:

There are no "signs" of anything. And they can't foresee something which is entirely based on opinions.

KZ3 scored less than KZ2 and didn't sell appreciably better. If it continued that way, somethings gotta change. It did continue with Shadow Fall, something changed.

AG80 said:

You completely ignored what I said. In 2 years Halo also fell by just as much as Uncharted, and from a lower score to begin with. If you're gonna talk about lifetime Uncharted increased from 88 to 92 in 4 years.

Not really, i said Halo 4 sold like Halo and kept in line with the meta depreciation of Reach despite changing studios. It's not like Halo 4 hasn't taken its knocks.

Uncharted 3 neither sold like Halo 4 and had a steeper depreciation, no change of studio either. Bear in mind GT5 wasn't performing on par with GT4 (not even close) a year before in sales or scores, Uncharted got accidentaly bumped up to the great Playstation hope and was stumbling. It's no surprise Sony might want to branch out.

AG80 said:

 If you're gonna talk about lifetime Uncharted increased from 88 to 92 in 4 years.

It did, but the first wasn't particularly remarkable was it.

sasquatchmontana said:

How is Sony carting it off to die? It has a sequel in development, doesn't seem it will cart off to die anytime soon.

Because they've said its the last one?  Probably meta 87% (same drop off as Arkham Knight). Best case scenario it sells as much as the last 2. Everything else is downhill from there.

sasquatchmontana said:

And one game scoring meh doesn't make Killzone a meh franchise,  one game which btw was constrained by a system launch.

The original was no sweetheart, 2 was much improved, 3 was problematic and SF was meh.

That right there is 10 years of Killzone, that is a lot of time and effort for a franchise that did maybe around 10-11 million on consoles. Ask Sony if they could have another franchise that does 25 million in 7 years or...they could have another Killzone...its a simple choice. Ensured mediocrity or possible greatness.

AG80 said:

Bullshit. You're just taking numbers out of your ass here. Forza 4 sold just a little more tahn 3 million, F2 didn't sell 4 million, F3 was the peak of the franchise due to excessive bundling.

Eh, i'm just reiterating what Forzas community manager has said. I'm well aware F2 & 3 were bundled so the figures are inflated, it's main competitor Gran Turimo did no less, so did Uncharted.

AG80 said:

Yet Microsoft goes even farther with Fable.

People are smart. They know that Journey was a spin-off, Anniversary was a remake and Heroes was an XBLA game. Fable III was their Killzone 3, likely Fable Legends will be their KZ:SF. Lionheads been concepting a new IP for a year now. They can see it coming too. Unlike you I have no problems acknowleging this.

AG80 said:

LBP sold 5 million +, Uncharted routinely sells 6 million +, the very basis of your claim is wrong. H

Not really. all I'm saying is Uncharted is being bumped off because Sonys financial issues put the kibosh on Naughty Dog becoming 2 teams, their plans in 2011 were to make Uncharted and TloU alternately.

These plans fell apart with Uncharted 3's qualititive issues and TLoU 6 month delay into 2013...which may well have caused Uncharted 4's 6 month delay as well.

So its one or the other, TLoU resonated better in the USA in a June launch then any Uncharted has during the holidays, it had a higher meta score then Uncharted 3, and has suffered less IP fatigue. In the long term, its more advantageous to Sony to ditch it.

AG80 said:

 LBP 3 wasn't even developed by Sony's first-party but outsourced to a third-party developer.

Yep and for a mainline sequel, being outsourced is hardly having much faith.