Considering 2D mario games are historically nearly just as strong as Mario Kart in sales and that the WiiU has a much stronger userbase than at either the MK8 or SSB4 launch, I think it'll be pretty easy. I figure 1.2 - 1.5 million just the first week alone.
I believe the appetite for great WiiU SW is much stronger than previously thought.
I predict NX launches in 2017 - not 2016