Trump isn't a frontline candidate. Every candidate gets a boost when they first announce and then they flunk down as the attention fizzles. Trump has been keeping the attention going for some time, but for all the wrong reasons, and his numbers will go down once the media finds their next thing to pounce on.
Opinion polls are absolutely useless at determining election results, as the past two British Parliamentary elections would tell you. Rallies mean nothing, either, sorry Bernie Sanders - look at the size of the Ron Paul rallies, and see how little they actually meant come election day.
I would love to see Rand Paul as the GOP nominee, but I don't think it'll happen. I'm also fairly confident, however, that Jeb Bush also won't be the nominee. Could end up being Scott Walker, which wouldn't be the end of the world.
I also disagree with the OP, this election is shaping up to have some the best primaries. There's actually an element of choice in both parties, and it's also quite likely that there'll be an element of choice in the general (unlike the past two, where the candidates are identical on everything that matters).
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