Will Wii U's Top Games Outsell GameCube's?

[Esiar]

 

I.e., can the top 8 Wii U games (I could only find info for the top 8 Wii U games) outsell the top 8 GameCube games?

GameCube has 35.57 million across the top 8 and Wii U has 27.67 (as of March 31, 2015).

 

Here's the sales of the games for

1. Super Smash Bros. Melee - 7.41 million

2. Mario Kart: Double Dash - 6.88 million

3. Super Mario Sunshine - 5.91 million

4. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker: 4.43 million

5. Luigi's Mansion - 3.32 million

6. Metroid Prime - 2.75 million

7. Mario Party 4 - 2.46 million

8. Pokémon Colesseum - 2.41 million

 

Wii U:

1. Mario Kart 8 - 5.11 million

2. New Super Mario Bros. U - 4.81 million

3. Nintendo Land - 4.68 million

4. Super Mario 3D World - 4.10 million

5. Super Smash Bros. for Wii U - 3.65 million

6. New Super Luigi U - 2.25 million

7. Wii Party U - 1.55 million

8. The Legend of Zelda: The Wind Waker HD - 1.52 million

Obviously we should keep in mind that new Wii U games are going to come out that could get into the top 8 (Splatoon and Zelda U are good examples), and that none of the Wii U games are done selling.

I'm going to say that they will. Each of the top 8 Wii U games would have to sell a little more than 4.4 million to pass up the GameCube's games. I seriously doubt that will happen, but games like Nintendo Land, 3D World, Mario Kart 8, NSMBU, and Smash Bros. will compensate for the lower sales of the number 6, 7, and 8 games. Assuming every game in the Top 5 sold as much as Mario Kart 8 (5.11 million) lifetime, the top 5 would total to 25.55 million, meaning that the last 3 games would have to average 3.34 million sales each. And the top 5 games are all likely to sell past 5.11 million (MK8 already has considering this data is from 3 months ago), which will lower the required average for the last 3 games even more (So meeting the required average wouldn't be much of a problem for Zelda U, Splatoon, and Luigi U. But it should be pretty close.