| generic-user-1 said:
there is enough oil at 100$/b, and thats a price the world can life with. and there will be no decline in hydrocarbonates, there are plenty enough for a long time, its just gets uglyer to produce.
and europe has an energie deficit because we dont wanna dig holes everywhere, there is enough coal and unconventional oil but thats not cheap. the deficite will decline alot in the next years, europe goes green and the consumption isnt growing. and its not a defite like the one the us or turkey has, europe doesnt need to loan money outside to buy oil. |
I like your optimism :D But, first of all, at this point in time oil doesn't cost that much, current price single-handedly killed a bunch of pricey oils production and future plans, including shale (I'm not even checking it anymore, it was smth around 60% dive in rig count since the peak?), and even if the price goes to stratosphere tomorrow it won't change a lot, because... you see, the further we go into the crisis the lower solvent demands is, I'm putting the stress at "solvent", because strategically "the club of debtors" is not a solvent buyer. As I've said it earlier printing press is not covering the debt hole anymore, they simply do NOT earn enough to pay the bills, including energy. Actually one way to explaing current crisis is to describe it as a crisis of demand, because that's what the essence of the current situation is -- monetary stimuli for ever-growing demand don't work anymore.
At some point your oil supplier will just ask you to pay with smth else but cut paper especially if oil prices will be up and down all the time, and this is where the problem begins. For exporting nations this means collapsing demand for their product, which they either compensate by redistribution of the exporting routes to those who could pay, or cutting exports trying to raise domestic needs, that leaves even less free energy offered for export to the global market. Both options are most likely won't cover for the decline though. Just look at modern-day Ukraine as the closest approximation of the nearest future and live example how country couldn't pay its bills, nor does population or enterprises as prices for electricity they previously took for granted are sky-rocketing for them (and that's with 40 bucks Gasprom discount included! Naftogaz is paying less than 250 bucks right now afair).
EU is energy deficit because it's quite simply energy deficit, there's no free will in the process, or someone wanting or not wanting smth :D If energy was readily available, EU wouldn't be energy deficit.
