bouzane said:
pitzy272 said:
Haha easy there guy. Read into my message a little. My point is the lowish sales of the XBO. I'm fully aware of how sales work, but ppl are predicting sales close to Halo 3 levels. Halo 3 released on a system that was the #1 in the world (also, as an aside, Halo 3 released when halo was at it's peak. It is no longer peaking). Peoples predictions involve an expectation for, in my opinion, an unreasonable attach ratio. XBO, following it's current sales rate, will likely be at around 30mill in 2-2.5yrs. After this period of time, u would expect halo to be at least approaching it's LT sales number. So 10mill would mean a 30% attach ratio. Has any Halo game had a 30% attach ratio? If so, I will stand, corrected.
Also, your GT3 comparison is flawed, again due to the popularity issue. Sure, it's possible for some games to sell more than their predecessors despite a smaller user base, but it has to involve an attach ratio within reason.
For the record, there's nothing wrong with disagreeing, but responding so arrogantly tends to make ppl look bad especially when it turns out they misunderstood the other poster's message.
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"Halo 3 released on a system that was the #1 in the world"
Halo 3 released on a console that had sold less than 12 million units.
"Has any Halo game had a 30% attach ratio?"
Halo 3 achieved a 32% attach ratio in its first week on the market and 43% by New Year's.
Edit:
By the end of 2009 (the equivalent of 2017 for the ONE) Halo 3 was at 10.5 million and the 360 was at 37.4 million which is 28%.
If the ONE stands at 32 million by the end of 2017 (conservative estimate) a 28% attach ratio would result in 9 million sales for Halo 5.
I responded arrogantly because I used the data available on this site coupled with a bit of historical precedent to make an informed estimate and I scoff at anybody who disagrees. That's right, I scoff at these ridiculous 6-8 million predictions :P
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Well to be fair, I think it'll end up closer to 7-8 (probably closer to 8) ;)
And okay, so a 28% AR would put it at 9mill, but we can't expect halo 5 to achieve the same AR as halo 3. Halo 3 released when Halo was like the #1 (or at least close to) game franchise in the world (besides nintendo stuff). It was the only place you could play that type of multiplayer. Now, Halo is moreso one among many. And the hype for it--while still huge--isn't near what it used to be.
Also, I know Halo 3 released on a small userbase. And XBO is still tracking ahead of 360 I believe. But the difference is that the 360 was on fire. It had a lot of hype being the #1 console (and bc it did so many things right) and continued to sell really well for many years. Not that XBO won't continue to sell; it's just that xbox also isnt what it once was. So I think most people would expect 360s sales to eventually overtake those of the XBO.
Either way, nothing I ever say will I preach as fact. You could end up being right, and I would gladly bow to your wisdom and foresight :)
