| generic-user-1 said:
toe are totaly useless because energie consumtion doesnt scale with productivity or wealth creation. |
Use cut paper of your favourite kind to measure those if that makes more sense to you... won't make GDP a good indication of productive activity anyway. If US GDP is halfed tomorrow does that mean they've lost half of their economy? No, it means it never been there. Bogus numbers they are.
| generic-user-1 said:
and last but not least, energie is cheap atm, realy cheap, same goes for transportation(the BDI is realy low, i mean realy realy low...) |
Really? Or you mean when measured in cut paper? Well, that's a problem of pricing model that needs to be corrected, but doesn't mean that energy is actually cheap. Peak oil (equivalent of peak energy for our world) means expensive oil, expensive to produce when production costs measured in the same oil naturally (or toe's, kJ's, whatever), that's what I meant. Expensive energy means expensive everthing in the long production line of goods, which at the next iteration makes energy production is even more expensive, which in turn means even less oil produced and so on and so forth -- death spiral (add to that declining demand). That's why your peak oil doesn't mean middle road of oil production, but beginning of an end, more like jump from a cliff -- our system is designed for cheap oil, expensive oil means huge restructurization of an economy reminisent of its destruction. Maybe we won't fight for can of tuna, but smth very much Mad Max'ian is possible for... certain regions :D
BDI being low is nothing to brag about, it just really shows how unhealthy world trade currently is.
