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The Witcher or Fallout. I think fallout will take it though.

Bethesda can do no wrong for critics and they're more than willing to look the other way when it comes to bugs, poor story telling, poor characters and poor combat for the sake of a huge detailed open world. The fact that it releases later in the year compared to the Witcher will also help it.

I don't really see anything else coming close to these two in terms of GOTY awards though. Maybe MGS or Tomb Raider could pull off a huge surprise but thats about it.