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2017 at the earliest. I'm leaning towards 2018.

And there will be only one PSfour. Not like the ps3 that had a slim and super slim. Reason for this is quite simple but yet a lot of people seem to not think about it.

PS3 launched with Chips built on a 90nm process and a board and cooling built to accommodate it. Shrinking from 90 to 60 to 40...etc gave it a lot of room to get smaller hence the two PS3 slims. With ps4 we started with a 28nm chip, not a lot of shrinking you can do from there