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Still a little hard to predict at the moment, this first default just stops further funding from the IMF until they correct the situation, the real crisis one is July 20th with the debts to ECB, at that point it will be game over. So the next 20 days both sides will be desperate to sort something out as default will have a lot of serious impacts external to Greece as well (yes Greece will be hit hardest but even many private banks in the US and other countries stand to lose billions).