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Of course it hqs to succeed, but I think it will fail, and as you say, will mark Nintendo's exit from the console scene.
But I don't think that would be bad for gaming in general. It would be bad for a small minority of gamers, and the past years have shown that they are not that important for the gaming world. EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Sony and Microsoft are all doing very well without those gamers, and would continue doing well.
If Nintendo were to go under tomorrow, most people wouldn't even notice or care.