| ZhugeEX said: I don't make guesses like people on chartz do. That's why I'm criticising both yourself and chartz. And you're right, I don't know why I'm wasting time on this forum. Only reason I joined is because any time I make a thread on GAF which talks about sales or the in depth reports I write it's instantly posted here on Chartz by some random people who don't bother to credit me. |
Now I find your analysis very deep and respect that but...
Do you understand how arrogant it sounds when you claim you don't make guesses? Closest thing to no guesswork would probably be if you were very deep inside the industry. It is possible but is it true? If it was true, then it is not fair to criticize people analyzing with the limited data they have on their hand.
NPD and GfK provide very accurate and reliable data but in the end there are still "hard guesses" and very real error margin involved. Sold through data will never be as accurate than publisher/manufacturer shipped data, simply because sold through data is collected from thousands of retailers but shipped data collected on from few. Thus the possibility of human error is considerably lower on shipped data. Problem lies within NPD data usage, it is very rarely questioned in sales talk. I am 100% sure there have been many significant errors within NPD data over the years, however it has "earned" pretty much absolute status.
If you take a critical look on your methology, do you still claim there are no guesses? I bet it is full of guesses. If it is a guess of probability of 99% being true and there are 5 of them, the end result will be very accurate most likely. But the assumptions are there.
Like I said, your analysis is high level, I don't deny that and I agree with the result you end up. Still you act like you have been blinded by your own approach being the one and mighty, to the point you don't anymore accept other people's different approach on the matter. Methology itself does not matter when the goal is to end up as close to the truth as possible. What is the objective proof that your methology is superior? Start with providing objective truth...
I cannot imagine toilet-free life.
Kebabs have a unique attribute compared to other consumables. To unlock this effect you need to wolf down a big ass kebab really fast, like under 10 minutes or so and wait for the effect to kick in. If done correctly your movements should feel unbelievably heavy to the point where you literally cannot move at all.
-Downtown Alanya Kebab magazine issue no.198
