Puppyroach said:
Op
ZhugeEX said:
Puppyroach said:
It is kind of hard to figure out how much X1 has shipped, but my reasoning is this:
We know the combined shipments for X1+X360, and separate shipments for the first two quarters when they were on the market. We can also safely assume that X1´s part of total shipments will increase as time goes by, but I have been a bit moderate with the relative growth. Here are my approximations on X1´s part of total shipments based of the first to quarters that we know of. Considering X1 had a very succesful december, I believe 360 fell even more, but I have calculated with a 70:30 ratio for simplicity. this would put X1 shipments at 12mn by dec31st.
| |
|
X1 |
XBOX360 |
Total |
%X1 |
| Q114 |
Jul-Sep13 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
1.2 |
0% |
| Q214 |
Oct-Dec13 |
3.9 |
3.5 |
7.4 |
53% |
| Q314 |
Jan-Mar14 |
1.2 |
0.8 |
2 |
60% |
| Q414 |
Apr-Jun14 |
0.7 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
63% |
| |
|
|
|
|
|
| Q115 |
Jul-Sep14 |
1.6 |
0.8 |
2.4 |
67% |
| Q215 |
Oct-Dec14 |
4.6 |
2.0 |
6.6 |
70% |
| Q315 |
Jan-Mar15 |
1.2 |
0.4 |
1.6 |
73% |
It is therefore pretty safe to assume it stand at atleast 11mn sold by Dec31st.
|
This is called making things up.
Therefore it's not safe to assume anything.
|
Well, all we do in this. thread is guesswork since no one knows the exact numbers besides MS. My numbers, however, would fit very well with VGC and a reasonable drop-off for 360 YOY. So what are your objections?
|
Your methodology.
Using VGC as a base is wrong as VGC make up their numbers, then guessing 360 shipments without explaining why is also a bit iffy.
Based on the deep analysis I've done I can say with some confidence that the Xbox One sell in will have been somewhere between 11.9m and 12.6m at the end of 2014. That fits with your number however the methodology I've used looks at all known variables in order to create this highly accurate number. Unfortunately we can't pinpoint an exact sell in number, nor can we pinpoint an exact sell through number. The full methodology I used is on gaf in one of my old posts. It's a long read.
