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A + B - C = D

D > E = Not a flop
D = E = Not a flop
D < E = Maybe a flop?


A = Amount of money SE received from MS
B = Amount of money SE receives from sales
C = Cost of making game
D = Difference
E = Amount of money required to qualify as "flop"

Considering we don't know A, B, C, D, or E (and E is subjective) my opinion is.... who the heck knows. It could sell 500k this holiday and still exceed SE expectations for all we know.