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So do we have an estimate on how many copies they have to sell in order to break even? Course, Microsofts 50 million probably will help a bit too.

There was a thread about 100 years ago it seems now that had a rough estimate of what everyone got, like the retailer, publisher, developer, etc. That would be helpful if someone just happened to have it handy.

If they get $20 a game, they only have to sell 5 million to break even, which they'll easily get (they'll probably have 5 million on both consoles by years end). If they only get $10 from each game, it's going to take a lot longer to realize profit, which of course is not taking into account the $50 million from Microsoft. In that case, it's half for both situations, and Microsoft probably won't ever make back the $50 million, course they probably weren't aiming to.