I'm going to go ahead and say that I have absolutely no idea how well this will do commercially.
That said, I have a strong feeling that Nintendo will actively limit Mario Maker's potential by trying to ensure that its primary focus remains on making Mario levels.
The impact of these types of games is, in many ways, determined by how abusable the core systems are. The importance of LittleBigPlanet is a product of its intricate physics engine; the most awe-inspiring constructs in Minecraft are the product of abusing redstone circuits; and the genre known as the MOBA is the product of abusing triggers in Starcraft's level editor.
If all you can do is make Mario levels in this game, I can see it selling well for a few months, but I don't think it will ultimately live up to its full potential.
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