Your MS interpretation is quite contradictory. For me before Phil Spencer MS was going in the way of making the Xbox One unique. Now it looks more like they are following where the gamers are going and thus with a delay. The pathetic intervention of Phil at the Oculus conference is the best exemple.
Conserning the sony part, you completely forgot Morpheus, even though Shu already said that they will dedicate a big part of the show for it and instead talk about TV and sports. When did Sony ever talk about sports in any of its conference? It's usually more something that MS would have done in the past.
Regarding the surprise that you are waiting for, has you discribe it, it would probably come from Media Molecule unannounced game but I expect it more to be reveal at the Paris Games Week. The surprise of this E3 will be Horizon. And TLG of course ;)
