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sc94597 on 08 June 2015
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HoloDust said:
sc94597 said:

The difference between the 3ds and its successor will be comparable to the Wii and Wii U. So obviously it. As for home consoles: I expect 8-12 Tflops for MS/Sony and 3-5 Tflops for Nintendo. So Nintendo but only by a little.

Yeah, 3DS is so weak that any decent SoC they pick up for next handheld will be gigantic jump.

As for your MSony expectations...I think they are just too low.

I believe MS realized that listening to Kinect/TV people was dead wrong (and hopefully fired them all) and that they should've listened to what EPIC was telling them back in 2011/2012, so I think there is slim chance they will risk to have another underpowered console (compared to Sony) next time.

If you look at 7th to 8th gen jump, Sony had 10x jump (stated by few devs), so even if we go with modest 8x, that's 15TFLOPS territory. If they decide to wait for GPUs that are capable of 4k native rendering (with similar 7th to 8th gen net jump - people keep forgetting that you need some 1.6x more proccesing power from 720 to 1080 just for pixel count, but around 3x from 1080 to 4K), or if 7nm node comes sooner than expected, then probably even more.

If Nintendo makes 5TFLOPS console that would be also massive jump from WiiU - I really hope they will go with at least that.

A few things:

I expect the PS4/XBO to release in 2018. Want to make sure we agree on the year before anything else. 

It has been the case that each generation the theoretical FLOP percent increase has decreased each time. For example, the XB -> XB360 was about 12 times, while the XB360 -> XBO was only five times. The PS2 -> PS3 was about 35 times, whereas the PS3-> PS4 was only 7.8 times (1800/230 Gflops.) So I think the trend of lower marginal increases in GPU power for the same marginal cost will continue and we're only going to see like 5-6 times percentage difference in 2018, especially when we consider how long last generation was compared with the sixth generation and what I predict the eight generation will be. 5 * 1300 = 6500 Gflops, 6*1300=  7800 Gflops, 5*1800 = 9,000 Gflops, 6*1800 = 10,800 Gflops. So unless MS/Sony decide on more expensive/more power-hungry consoles like they did in the seventh generation, I just can't see them going above 12 TFLOPs. 

As for native 4k resolutions, I don't think either Sony/MS will do it next generation and I don't think third parties are ready or want them to do it. The asset qualities at 4k would just be too high for them to keep up with the development costs. I think we'll see 1600p/1440p as the standards, much likes how sub-HD/720p was a standard in the 7th generation.