I think hindsight will be a big big factor in deciding if it will win GOTY. Reviewers don't live in a vacuum, and as such aren't objective. GTAIV has gotten an absurd amount of hype, and pumped up as the greatest thing since sliced bread. I'm sure it's an excellent game, but it no doubt benefits from the hype surrounding it.
Hindsight cures us of that. Will GTAIV still be a phenomenon and considered one of the greatest games of all time by January of next year? Or will that belong to the upcoming FFXIII/Killzone 2/Gears Of War 2, ect ect ect. As gamers we are a marketers dream, we buy into any amount of hype, build anticipation among ourselves, and fight fiercely to whatever game/system we are loyal too. And as soon as the product comes out we claim it's a masterpiece, play it for 40 hours and then repeat the process with whatever is the next thing they want to sell to us.
So will GTAIV be GOTY? Only if nothing gets hyped up for christmas time.
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