Three problems I have with the replies here:
1. What I don't understand is why people assume that if something is not a huge success, it's necessarily a failure. I mean even if they don't end up doing well enough, they can still turn a profit.
People keep mentioning MOVE as failure, but it moved 10m units. If Sony could make a decent profit on NFC figs, I don't see the problem here.
2. Also, I don't see how that would be a distraction. It's not like Naughty dog is gonna stop making Uncharted 4 for an NFC figure.
3. The whole star-power. It's how you sell a product. When Skylanders launched almost everyone on this site predicted a failure. Spyro looked ugly, etc. Turned out to be a multi-billion success for Activision. And let's not forget how well the wiifit trainer has sold. They made amiibos into a cool item (most by creating artificial demand) and it worked.
4. As for the NFC figs being bought only by children. Obviously everyone here is an adult and plenty people are going gaga for them. Not only that but the pictures we see of people buying them are mostly of adults.
I could see this turned into a decent success if they handle it properly.