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Since we're talking "Lifetime" you also have to take into consideration that the Titanfall 2 hype leading up to its release will potentially see a noticeable bump in sales, whenever that may be. The game will probably be selling for $10-20 then and you'll not only have the people re-buying it because they traded it in, but a significant increase in Xbox One owners that buy it for the first time in preparation of Titanfall 2.

I know everyone is gung-ho over Splatoon, but let's be realistic - it's a completely new IP, it's a shooter on a Nintendo console, and on a very troubled console with regards to install base.