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I don't think Until Dawn is a true AAA in the sense that Sony expects or demands a significant profit from it.
To me it seems as a interesting project that will add to the PS4's variety and will attempt to attract people who are not gamers in the first place. Horror slasher movies are never big budget affairs, and I doubt that this game is either.
As I said earlier in the topic, I think that half a million copies breaks this game even (so about a $15 million budget), and that the success of the game will not be measured in sales, but in critical and customer reception/feedback.