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DerNebel said:

That would depend on them even being given the time to create something like that, if MS wants all their resources to focus on mainline Gears at all times, then they can hardly create a prototype for such a spinoff.

Gears 1-3 were created with 50 man team at Epic and tight budget.

Black Tusk has more than 100 people and a lot of them come from Epic. Additionally, MS Vancouver (predecessor of BT) already has a protoype of an adventure game called Shangheist.