HDTVs are important to blu ray adoption but just because someone doesnt have the tv doesnt mean he wont get a blu ray, a lot of people have ps3's without having a HDTV and some of them buy blu ray movies.
The key to blu ray market penetration is price, once blu ray player costs the same as a dvd player even though someone might not have a hdtv they will still buy the blu ray.
As far as digital distribution i believe that it is many years off before being feasable and even when it takes off it will share the market with physical media rather then destroying it.
Both storage size and internet speeds are lacking for the masses to get high definition downloads, and people wont accept low quality movies though its debatable how high a quality is acceptable to the masses.
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