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good post, but you are wrong. You arent putting enough thought into how much storage space all these downloaded HD movies are going to take.

You mentioned how $30 a month for DSL (which sucks for DL'ing HD media) is so much cheaper then a blu ray player but didnt mention at all how much this PC thats doing the downloading costs. or how much the massive hard drives are going to cost. or how costly a hard drive failure would be if you had 100's of movies on there that you paid for.

movies != music , you are relying to much on the recent histroy of cd's vs mp3's to form your opinion. people like having a physical copy of a movie. i cant take my downloaded copy of Grandma's Boy to my buddy's house but taking a blu ray is no problem.

The next Christamas season will tell a lot on how the home movies will play out. HDTV's continue to drop dramatically in price and should be a VERY popular item this Christmas. Once HDTV becomes the norm, blu ray will explode in growth.

i would even argue that right now, the % of people who own a blu ray player is larger then the % of people who know how & have the means , to download and play HD media on a screen worthy of movie watching. (19" computer monitor with PC speakers, is not worthy of HD media you spent 2+ hours downloading)

you also down play the importance of visual quality, again movies != music, mp3 vs cd isnt even noticeable to most people, thats why mp3 took off. people couldnt even notice the difference. HDTV vs SDTV is a whole 'nother world.