You are of course exaggerating some of your points a bit (especially in the title hehe), but in general you are of course right. 3rd parties have a long way to go if they want to make big profits with the current budgets they're using for making big games.
However, I think it will take a while. One thing that I have observed in the past few months is that many people in this industry (at least management and strategists) aren't terribly bright. From analysts to the managers of most gaming companies, there just seems to be a lower average IQ than in other businesses.
EDIT - regarding the joke, it doesn't work that well here... maybe because of my resolution? Anyway, you got me, you've been upping your game lately! :D
My Mario Kart Wii friend code: 2707-1866-0957