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Nice post,
I think you are right about digital distribution growing faster than blu-ray. But this is all relative in my eyes.
People have up-converted dvd's with the ps3 making the transition less necessary right now.
But for Blu-Ray to realy shine it needs a nice hdtv, (and tons of people still dont have them)
But I do see the implementation of hdtvs in peoples homes starting to take hold.
So Blu-Ray could jump from nothing to something over night once the hdtv's and high definition television are widely adapted.

I don't see the same chance for digital distribution.
I believe blu-ray will jump and become 40% of the current dvd market in about 2 years time. At which point Digital distribution would also be widely available, but at a substantially smaller install base and rate.

I can see the movie rental stores being effected by DD though.

There is one thing that is almost a certainty.. DD will catch on at some point to some extent at which it is successful.

The same is not known of Blu-Ray.



̶3̶R̶D̶   2ND! Place has never been so sweet.