You also have to think about the imminent price cut Sony will have this year. They just might do it in September to take away sales from Halo 5. If they are aggressive with it and bundle another game, that can spell trouble and may also grant them September's NPD. Of course I still believe that September is Xbox's though.
I know you've mentioned the price cut already, but I think you're underestimating it. You see PS4 is already winning without one. Imagine a bundled game with a price cut. That's going to raise revenue big time.
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