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ithis said:
Now I fear that after I kill the thing in the lake, the game will not open up again, because I must have missed something else somewhere... again.

Don't worry, the game will put you on the path to progression after the lake.

Think I'm playing about the same as you (slow and careful - haven't felt this nervous or tense during a game in forever), and have certainly missed at least one optional path I know of thus far.