The Wii will sell 200 million MINIMUM. This isn't going to be a 49%/26%/25% generation. That never happens. Wii will have a ridiculous lead by the end of this year, and 10 times more ridiculous by the end of 2009. Every generation ends the same way: one system gets a majority of 3rd party games, including big sequels, new IPs, and shovelware. Wii will get all of those, just like the PS2 did. But the Wii has 2 things the PS2 didn't: revolutionary controls, and Nintendo's first party software.