kowenicki said:
if's buts and maybe's The whole premise of the calculations is loaded. Similar arguments about not joining the euro... How did that turn out again. I actually dont care too much either way if we do or dont, but talk of huge financial issues are over the top... embargos and sanctions are idiotic in the extreme. The UK is a net importer with the EU.
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kowenicki is right. This is why I said we don't actually have a clue what would happen and both pro EU and anti EU sides are talking absolute codswallop when they are proclaiming absolutes for what will happen.
It would certainly make sense for the EU to make new trade agreements similar to other countries that aren't in the EU as we buy a lot more than we sell. However they could also choose to make an example of us and impose punitive levies to try and cripple us. That would just mean for trade we would have to look to other countries, but we would also be freer to do this without the restrictions of the EU. Ultimately though, any such scenario would be detrimental to everyone involved.