BREXIT could cost the UK €300 billion

[MikeRox]

StarOcean said:
Not going to pretend I know a whole lot about this issue, as I only know from what I skimmed and then read through the comments. But when will this decision be made? Soon or in 2018? And what is the actual likelihood of UK splitting from the EU?

Of the main parties:

Conservatives want to renegotiate the terms of the EU and have a referendum on the revised terms in 2017.

Labour don't want any referendum.

Lib Dems don't want any referendum,but haven't ruled it out as part of a Conservative Lib Dem Coalition (they don't look like winning enough seats for this)

The only other party that wants a referendum is UKIP, and they want it in 2015 as terms of any coalition. However, despite having near double the percentage (approx 15%) of votes that the Lib Dems (8%) look likely to get, they'll be lucky to get a single MP meaning no influence whatsoever in our parliament while the Lib Dems would likely get 20-25 from that 8% due to the boundaries and First Past the Post voting system.

 

I'd actually say the chances of a referendum on the EU being on the cards after the results are in tomorrow is about 25%.