Mummelmann said:
The biggest problem I see with the 100 million total hardware sales is that it still doesn't disprove that Nintendo are losing relevance, especially considering how much the market has grown since the NES days, this basically denotes stagnation in their market development at best and downright contraction (relatively speaking) at worst. In addition; we still have to look at the numbers and conclude that both handhelds and home consoles is taking a hit, they are both trending downwards, while in the above list, as home console sales shrunk, handheld sales kept growing between generations. I saw a thread on the hot topics page titled something like "Why is the Vita outselling the Wii U for 2015 so far?" and it made me think; why is that? Vita barely gets support, has been declared more or less dead globally and doesn't have an ounce of marketing power behind it. The Wii U has been supported decently by Nintendo, has had some bigger marketing pushes and managed two half-decent holidays in its time. The fact that the West is becoming a more and more important and prominent market for home consoles is another huge problem for Nintendo. This is their biggest weakness, and I believe I've said as much before; they are a very, very Japanese company at heart and as far as management style goes, the same is true for many of their franchises and appeal, they have been hopelessly bogged down by tradition and a very unpersonal demeanor on a corporate level (business face syndrome; their treatment of Indies and the struggles of Dan Adelman with Nintendo's policies are huge signs of this phenomenon). The whole industry has taken a turn towards more western-centric design philosophies, both in hardware and software and Nintendo have quite simply lagged behind (literally at some points; their lack of online focus is perhaps the main culprit here) and have kept on pushing their agenda and desire for creating your own market and demand rather than reading and responding; this is a tactic that works very poorly if you don't understand the markets you're going for or the finer mechanics of the trends that drive the consumer sentiment towards any given line of products or entertainment concepts (or, to the same effect; not allowing those who do understand to help in making major decisions and offering valuable input). I think even Nintendo are realizing that they're shrinking and becoming less relevant as a provider of entertainment, this is likely why they recently made the decision to start developing for mobile as well; they need to be more visible on the market as a whole and they need the continued financial support from the mass market segments of the market, this is found primarily on mobile devices right now and for some time. Bottom line for me; the traditional Nintendo is losing relevance, which is why they are currently seeking to rebuild themselves and bolster their strength by aquiring more breadth and impact across more of a potential audience and with a wider array of services as well. They finally understood what happened to the majority of the Wii audience and where the 150 million missing handheld gamers from the 7th gen have gone, and that's probably a good thing for them in the long run. |
Thanks for replying finally 
There is one thing in my last post u seem to have overlooked, I pointed out that outside of America, Nintendo is on track to hit their pre-Wii/DS baseline, it's literally only America that is showing a decline. That decline is looking to be about 40% (30 million vs 50 million), that correlates with the 40% extra it currently costs to get both devices compared to pre-Wii/DS generations adjusted for inflation ($500 vs $300). Like I said, it may be a coincidence but I think it could be a large reason why their hardware isn't selling up to snuff in America where children is a huge market for Nintendo.
U point out that the 100 million baseline shows that Nintendo hasn't grown and is stagnant, well that is true for the Playstation+Xbox market as well, it's looking to be the 3rd consecutive generation of stagnant hardware sales for them.
PS2+Xbox=about 180 million
PS3+360=about 170 million, will likely end around 180 million
PS4+XB1=too early to say but most estimates are around 120-130 million for PS4 & 50-60 million for XB1 so right around 180 million once again.
As for Mobile, Nintendo wants to use it as a way to help market their traditional hardware/software and be able to generate a healthy profit at the same time along with unifying their handheld/consoles as a way to increase software output. In my opinion, the 3 things Nintendo needs in order to regain that 100 million hardware/500 million software baseline are improved marketing, more affordable hardware, higher software output. With these things fixed, I think it's very possible that their next console can sell 20-30 million and the handheld 70-80 million.
From 1991-2006, Nintendo averaged about $1 billion annually with these type of hardware/software sales, I think they can return to those types of profits with these numbers and perhaps even go back to Wii/DS level profits which was about $15 billion over the course of 5 years. I don't think it's realistic to expect Nintendo to return to Wii/DS level sales which was 250+ million hardware and close to 2 billion software but with Nintendo branching out into new markets, I believe they can potentially hit those level profits despite lower hardware/software sales.
NX family of devices
Amiibo figuries/cards
Quality of Life products
Mobile games/apps
IP licensing (films/series)
Their traditional gaming market could return to their pre-Wii/DS baseline of 100 million hardware/500 million software/$1 billion annual profit and their other newer markets can potentially make return them to Wii/DS level profits.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
