Why do people think Xbox One will be down this year.

[Zanten]

In the case of the U.S. and U.K., I do think that the Halo drop, coupled with a price cut, ALSO coupled with a free game bundle has... a good chance of bringing it up overall? Last holiday wasn't exactly a slump for the Xbox One, it actually sold very well, which will set a respectable bar for them to reach this year. But I suppose Halo could be enough for it to sell super DUPER well, especially if they pursue marketing and bundle variety as aggressively this holiday as they did last. However, if the next handful of months look as bare for the Xbox One as it currently appears- brightest spot on the horizon for a Microsoft-favoring sales boost til the holidays being a Witcher 3 bundle- then the sales slump might build up too much of a deficit for the holidays to completely wipe away. Have to wait and see, though.

A price cut and Halo launch, however, is at best going to have a marginal effect outside of the Xbox strongholds, as consumer interest in the product is just rather low. :/ Xbox 360, for all its advantages, had a lot of trouble cracking that nut, so the Xbox One is unlikely to do any better. While I'm sure Halo is much beloved to the fans that are in that regions, the relative lack of market penetration by Xbox consoles likely means the franchise isn't quite the huge mega-star seller that it is in the U.S, and it won't move consoles as effectively. Early adopters- those who are Xbox fans from the get go- would probably have resulted in front-loaded sales within many of those regions, particularly last holiday when stuff like Titanfall, the MCC and Sunset Overdrive landed. So in all those regions, I'd say that the odds of it being down YoY are pretty likely.

As for overall, suppose it depends on which side outweighs the other. o.o That and, of course, what Microsoft does between now and the end of the year.