Predict Splatoon sales first week.

[binary solo]

Toxy said:

binary solo said:

Why? Because Nintendo fans would vote based on hope and wishes rather than looking at empirical information? I'm basing my views on software sales on Wii U to date, according to VGC because I have nothing better to go on. Fact is, aside from ZombiU there is no brand new IP on Wii U that has sold above 500K, according to VGC. If there is a benchmark against which Splatoon should be measured it's The Wonderful 101.

I see you don't even bother answering the question I pose, rather you content yourself with throwing out unfounded accusations, and putting words on my keyboard I've never written. Where is your evidence of my irrational hate and making excuses for games selling better than I predicted? When it comes to predicting sales for Wii U games I've been pretty close to how things have turned out most of the time, because I try to be analytical about things rather than be lead by my emotions or my hopes and wishes. You think I want Splatoon to fail. I'm just trying to read WiiU's reality and predict how things will go. If how I read things isn't to your liking suddenly it's because I am hating for no reason. What are you going to say if what I've suggested comes close to being true? Are you going to write me an apology?

Captain Toad has sold over 500k and it is a new IP (albeit with a recognisable character from the Mario universe). 

Bayonetta 2 has sold over 600k and is a new IP for Nintendo fans, although it is technically not a new IP, so your point still stands.

However, where your argument falls short, is when you use the Wonderful 101 as the benchmark to measure the approximate sales for Splatoon.
Splatoon is a (somewhat) different take on the 3rd person shooter, which is a popular genre in itself, regardless of being a new IP.

 

The Wonderful 101 is a game targeted toward a very niche crowd. Dare I say, it would not have moved much units on Sony or Microsoft platforms. It is a niche genre, as well as being developed by a niche party (Platinum Games). Platinum games are notorious for generally being high quality titles, yet they do not necessarily equate to good sales.

Splatoon, while being a new IP, is a Nintendo developed in-house title. It is of a more popular genre, one of which does not have a strong presence on the Wii U at the moment. 
It is safe to say that this game will likely sell more than Wonderful 101, as it has more hype and coverage thus far. Whether it will be a huge hit on the other hand; is anyone's guess at this point.

Right, so nothing that's brand new other than ZombiU.

Captain Toad, apparently builds of a minigame from SM3DW. If so, it's more than just using a known character from the Mario universe, which is a nice leg up in itself, but is a spin off from one of the best selling games on Wii U.

Bayonetta 2, well that speaks for itself. Don't know why you brought it up.

I agree that Splatoon should do better than TW101. After all I am picking it should start with about 7-8x the FW sales of TW101. But it is a game that is quite outside the norm for a multiplayer TPS, which is a reasonably popular genre, but not all that popular as a MP only genre. That benchmark is somewhat set by PvZ:GW, which comes from a known and popular franchise. It has done well across 5 combined platforms, but has not sold over 1 million on any single platform, though it probably got lots of digital sales, and it was given away for 24hrs on PSN to celebrate the 20th anniversary, which is how I got it.