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Hits:

MGS4, LBP, R2, and GTAIV

LBP will be a critical success, if nothing else, but I believe it will have incredibly long legs.

Possible flop:

Killzone 2

Guerrilla's changed. Sony's putting everything they have behind this game (budget, manpower, third party contacts, etc.) for a reason. I believe it will do well, and all of the technical problems of the first will be gone. The fact that it looks beautiful should make shooting shit up fun as hell as well. That being said, we don't really know how it will turn out, and previews aren't the most trustworthy of sources to judge a game on.

Probable flop:

Haze

Free Radical are veterans in the FPS realm, but just about every preview of this game has said it looks and plays like an average shooter. Let's hope that 4-player co-op combined with a little bit of Nectar will make this game an enjoyable experience all around.