I'm not as pessimistic of the Xbox One's future as others appear to be. XBO had Titanfall in March 2014, which gave it a significant boost. What did they have this March? 1st party was Screamride and 3rd party was Battlefield: Hardline. Those were the only retail games that gave the XBO any sort of boost. Microsoft loves to stuff their 1st party retail stuff in Q4, with little for the rest of the year.
Let's take a look at last year's 1st party/3rd party exclusive retail releases:
Q1:
- [0 1st party]
Q2:
- Kinect Sports Rivals
Q3:
- Forza Horizon 2
Q4:
- Sunset Overdrive
- Shape Up
- Halo: The Master Chief Collection
Most of Xbox One's sellers are going to be loaded in the latter part of the year, with very little sellers for the first half of the year. If you compare it to this year:
Q1:
- Screamride
Q2:
- Fable Legends
Q3:
- Forza Motorsports 6
- Scalebound (predicted release date: Q3)
Q4:
- Crackdown (predicted release date: Q4)
- Halo 5: Guardians
- Rise of the Tomb Raider
Based on this pattern, determining the Xbox One's future success from data in Q1 is rather shallow. It does make it rather boring for the first 6 months, but whatever...
