| Reasonable said: I still think BR players will take over simply because they will be able to play BR and DVD (and upscale too) and so long as the price comes down you simply get more choice. Plus all the studios have to do is make the DVD versions 'skinny' and shove best extras on BR versions to encourage the film fans to go BR with new purchases while keeping existing DVDs. |
Making standard DVD product "skinny" sounds good, but it's a gamble. Does it encourage migration to Blu-ray or does it frustrate the mass market of standard-DVD-player owners when they realize they're going to have to replace their 10-month old DVD player to see all the "extras" available on the "better" edition? Will they even know there is a "better" edition available when they walk into Best Buy and head straight for the massive standard-DVD section?
My guess is they will simply ignore the Blu-ray section except for the occasional foray out of curiosity. I've had family over to see HD movies, and while the guys in the family sometimes give the "ooooo, that looks great" response, most of the women ask what the big deal is and the kids couldn't care less... "look, the penguins are talking!".
If the studios all got together and decided to squash the standard-DVD format by supporting Blu-ray-only releases, that would definitely have a much stronger effect. Then again, it would be illegal in the US (collusion to restrict product within a market).
Blu-ray adoption will probably be slow and steady as HDTV penetration slowly increases, and assuming Blu-ray prices hit a reasonable level.
EDIT: assuming Blu-ray PLAYER prices and DISC prices hit a reasonable level. The average player price is still far too high for mass-market acceptance, and the movie prices are rediculous. Considering Blu-ray won the "HD war", I now expect the discs prices to remain high for the long term. Get people used to a higher price point and stick with it. Worked for DVD for years...'
