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Wii U is barely selling more than PS3 this year in Japan. Wii U has no momentum in Japan and its main AAA games in Japan are already released (Zelda is not that big in Japan). I'd say PS4 > Wii U in japan is more likely than PS4 > XB1 in US.

Contrary to Nintendo, Microsoft is ready to spend a lot of money (price-cuts, timed exclusivity of BIG franchise like Tomb Raider, crazy bundles etc.) in order to keep selling consoles and stay competitive with their main competitor in their home country as they proved it last holidays.