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I think it's very hard to measure the PS2's impact on the success of the PS3.

The PS2 Helps because....

-It cut's into competitors market share , it still sells.
-Gives the PS3 a huge potential fanbase (120 million PS2 owners)
-Gives the PS3 a larger libary ( BC Compatible PS3's anyway)
-Helped establish the "Playstation" Brand name , it basicly defiined Playsation.
-The amount of development resources Sony has aquired is imense , Sony have more 1st party development reosurces than MS and Nintndo (not comined)

Without the launch of the PS3

-Sony probbaly would have released the PS3 earlier
MAJOR MAJOR MAJOR POINT!!!!!LAUNCH DATES MATTER !!!!
-Sony wouldn't have apporached this gen so arrogantly.
have encouraged more developer support
Would have started with a lower Price Point
-The PS3 would apear to be newer and more original
Gamepad wouldn't look as un-original
A newer and more original look would have helped sales


I overall i'm not sure I think the chances of the PS3 being succesfull / no succesfull are kinda 50/50, very strong points each way.