The "future" of gaming... Has Nintendo broken through for a massive win?

[shams]

There is no pattern for the future. Gaming devices up to now have been primarily driven by technology advances - specifically graphics.

But that is now officially over. For the first time, a significant improvement in graphics has been shunned by a major manufacturer - and they are winning. You can blame price, and a host of other things - but there is no disputing this.

Graphics are now photorealistic. If a company wants to spend the resources, they can create some that looks fantastic on the Wii - as much so as the PS3 & 360.

People keep forgetting this is a *business*. People here tend to look upon things from the point of the consumer - what something costs to buy, how many units it sells, what the graphics are, what the review scores are, etc.

The industry doesn't care about this. Like it or not, the games industry is a tough industry. It is littered with the bones of previous companies that misread the economic direction of the industry - and also with "mega-corps" that make insane amounts of money, and drive the industry forward.

Software companies support the Wii out of necessity - not because they want to. Not because they like the machine, the Wiimote or anything else. Because it will make them more money. Only a few companies can afford to not do this, and take some serious risks on other consoles.

The PS1 won because the CD format was cheaper to produce, and easier to develop for than N64 carts.

The PS2 won because Sony gave the market what it wanted, when it wanted - had no competition, and won before either the XBOX or GC launched.

If it wasn't for the Wii, the PS2 would almost certainly be going strong - it will be years before the PS3 is down to a price level that is PS2 consumer friendly (hence replacing units).

The Wii is the new PS2 - and its attracting new consumers to the industry - a lot of them. Like it or not, it has only started getting "warmed up" - and like it or not, its here to stay. Ninty can continue to extend its appeal by releasing *lots* of new peripherals for it - they have turned this into a key feature of the console. Its only been 1.5 years, and we have the Wiimote, Nunchuck, Wiigun, WiiWheel, WiiFit board, and so on.

Ninty could continue doing this for 5-10 years - the only thing that would force a refresh of the Wii tech, is price. When its retail costs drops to $99, its worth releasing a souped-up version of the Wii for $249 again - with refreshed tech. But this is 5-10 years away.

In the meantime, its going to take something revolutionary to unseat the Wii. Handheld is a definitely possible direction - but battery power is a real restriction. And would a portable Wii be more popular than the current Wii? I doubt it.

It may well be 3D or true "VR" before the next generation is upon us - unless Ninty manage to release decent VR goggles for the Wii :P