DanneSandin said:
zorg1000 said:
DanneSandin said:
zorg1000 said:
| DanneSandin said:
Then what IS the priority for the NX? To only cater to Nintendo fans? Then you get Wii U numbers...
But how are they going to reach 70-80m users? That's pretty damn good numbers, but how are they going to reach those numbers if they're not trying to make it as appealing as possible to as many as possible?
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U seem to be forgetting about the 50+ million 3DS sales. By the end of the generation, Nintendo will have sold like 80-90 million units of hardware (Wii U, 15-20m & 3DS, 65-70m). So based on that 70-80 million isn't out of the question for NX.
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Yes, but how many of them double dipped? And how many times? There isn't 51m 3DS USERS out there. There is 51m 3DS's SOLD, but not users. I also imagine that most Wii U owners also have a 3DS. That means that if the Fusion sells 80m handhelds and home consoles, there's quite a large number that will have both, and while this practice will inflate the HW numbers, it won't do the same for SW numbers.
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Nintendo doesn't care if the same people buy multiple versions of their hardware, they just care that the hardware is selling. How many Wii U owners have a 3DS, 100%? 50%? 25%? Who knows, but at the same time, as long as each device isn't overpriced and have some exclusive features than Nintendo can probably get their dedicated fans to buy both a handheld and console.
Nintendo doesn't really have a problem selling software, here are some reasonable estimates for their big franchises this generation.
Mario Kart-20 million (MK7-13m, MK8-7m)
Pokémon X/Y-15 million, Pokemon OR/AS-10+ million
2D Mario-17 million (NSMB2-11m, NSMBU-6m)
3D Mario-17 million (3D Land-12m, 3D World-5m)
Smash Bros-15 million (3DS-9m, Wii U-6m)
Obviously since there is an overlap between 3DS & Wii U owners, the total amount isn't necessarily how much a single title would sell if on both devices, so Mario Kart NX might sell 16-17 million instead of 20m but that can be cancelled out by the reduction in development costs by not having to make 2 seperate games and by having a large userbase to sell DLC to.
Then u have to consider certain games would have an increase of on both. Tropical Freeze, for example is just over 1 million and might leg it out to 1.5-2m, if it had the 3DS userbase to sell to as well than it would likely be a 5 million seller. Animal Crossing on 3DS is like 8.5 million and Luigi's Mansion about 4 million, if they were also on Wii U than they would be 10 million and 5 million sellers by now.
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When I said double dipping I was also talking about people buying a 3DS several times over... And I think you're overestimating how much MK would sell on a unified NX system; 16-17m seems like a lot since MK7 and 8 so far have sold 15m together, and I'm pretty sure a few million of those cosyumers have both copies... But maybe you're not far off.
And I totally agree with your last paragraph! Some franchises won't sell as many copies per gen, while others will do better. With the Fusion NIntendo will be able to release more games from different series, which should be a really good thing.
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I know u were talking about people who have bought multiple version of 3DS but then again what makes u think Nintendo won't release multiple versions of NX handhelds? We will still get revisions and plenty of special editions.
MK7+8 shipments are a little over 16 million right now and both are still selling. MK7 released in 2011 yet still shipped 1.8 million so far this fiscal year. When all is said and done it could be 20 million for MK7+8, in which case 16-17 million wouldn't be unlikely if they were a single title on both platforms.
Look at it this way, let's assume that each Mario Kart unit is sold at full price
Mario Kart 7-$40×13,000,000 units=$520,000,000 revenue
Mario Kart 8-$60×7,000,000 units=$420,000,000 revenue
Mario Kart 7+8=$940,000,000 revenue+MK8 DLC=roughly $1 billion revenue
Mario Kart NX-$60×15,000,000 units=900,000,000 revenue+DLC=roughly $1 billion revenue
See how they can still make the same amount of money by selling 5 million less units and are likely making more profit by developing and advertising one game instead of 2 seperate games while still able to go ahead and make a new game 2-3 years later?
