Will XBox 360 reach 50 million?

[kn]

crumas2 said:

halil23 said:
NO, 25-30 million

 

The only way the 360 could top out at such a low number would be if MS stops selling it at the end of 2008 and brings out a new console. Below are actual sales trends for the 360:

 

2006 sales: 6.7 m

2007 sales: 8.0 m

 

1st quarter 2006 sales: 1.1 m

1st quarter 2007 sales: 1.2 m

1st quarter 2008 sales: 1.7 m

 

During the first quarter of 2008, the 360 is selling 55% ahead of 1st quarter 2006, and 42% ahead of 1st quarter 2007. Assuming this trend continues and the 360 sells 55% more in 2008 than 2007, then that will be 12.4 m sold in 2008, which will put the 360 at a grand total of 28.5 m by the end of this year.

Even if the 360 were to inexplicably drop in sales and only track 2007's numbers, 8 m, that would still put the grand total of 360s at 24.1 m by the end of 2008, almost at the bottom of your "lifetime" sales range. The only way I could see the 360 not reaching past 30 m lifetime sales would be if MS decided to stop selling it by the end of this year. Considering they're actually making a profit from the system now, and still have yet to see sales from the $199 price point, I can't imagine them getting out the race that early.

Do you know something you could share with the rest of us regarding MS' future console plans?

 

EDIT: changed some of the numbers above to reflect real math instead of the imagination math I was using

Careful when playing with sound logic.  You might hurt some of the kids on the board here as they aren't used to it.