Can Uncharted 4 Hit 9mil+ Lifetime in Sales?

[binary solo]

tbone51 said:

 

Can Uncharted 4 Hit 9mil+ Lifetime in Sales?

Notes:

*Im using the 9mil figure because 1) People think it can hit 10mil, so 9mil seems fair 2)Uncharted with PS4 looks to smash records and will undoubtedly have huge legs the entire generation 3) 7mil+ seems like a given, 8mil+ is doable!

*Uncharted Series is HUGE (6mil+ sellers on ps3 each)

*Naughty Dawg (became Super popular, considered 1 of the top notch gaming developers)

*Did I metion Its on PS4?

Thoughts?

Not sure. Is possible, but that could throw a spnner in my predictin of Halo5 (predicting 8-9 million for that) > UC4 LTD so I will go with no, for purely selfish reasons.

Assuming everyone who played UC3 will eventually buy UC4, which is a relatively safe assumption I think. Then getting substantially over 7 million depends entirely on the "never owned PS3 but now bought a PS4" segment of PS4 owners. Assuming most of these people came from 360 ownership, and virtually none of them are Gears or Halo fans (they will all strongly remain with Xbox), it might be that a relatively small proportion of them will be highly motivated to get UC4. If 10% of PS4 converts are motivated to buy UC4 that means there needs to be 20 million converts for UC4 to make the leap from being a 7 million sellig game to a 9 million selling game. If 40% of PS4 converts are motivated to buy UC4 that means there only needs to be 5 million PS4 converts for that 2 million sales leap to be achieved.

I think UC4 has a good chance at 8 million, but a slim chance at anything substantially above that.