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My view on the possible scenario:

- MS brings Xbox Games Marketplace to Win 10
- It fills it with cheap or even free games already available
- It will make all the Xbox exclusive ports exclusive for Xbox Games Marketplace.
- The online portion of the game mentioned above will exclusively use XBL for free (with a veery tiny policy hidden in the T&C).
- A certain portion of the hundreds of millions of Windows users will consider it the main source for PC gaming
- It will introduce offers and discounts, free games and even apps for PC users subscribing to XBL Gold.
- One day the players will see the message "We are sorry, but to play online you have to subscribe to Xbox Live Gold" when trying to go online with the MS exclusives.