How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

[SamuelRSmith]

Nettles said:

Not good but it is hard to get a really accurate view of what is going on because so many of the numbers/markets are manipulated.Good ones to watch in the USA are motor vehicle sales m/m, capacity utilization rate and retail sales since consumer spending makes up 75% of the US economy.Ignore the inflation numbers and the non farm payroll numbers as these are heavily manipulated.Going by these the economy is doing OK but seems to be slowing down now, especially with the recent poor weather in the US.

Chinese manufacturing has been stagnant the past year going by the official numbers which aren't all that reliable.More reliable in China is house prices and number of new home sales, Construction/Infrastructure spending makes up something like 30% of the Chinese economy.Both these numbers are down this year which is a big part of why so many commodities like Iron Ore, Copper etc are also down.I saw a chart the other day stating Chinas total debt/GDP is over 200%, a large portion of that is tied to shadow banking loans on residential and commercial real estate.I think the next financial crisis will start in China, not Europe or the US.Maybe later this year or early 2016.

 

This is a site i always check for economic info, gives you all the important stuff : http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

I'd avoid using motor vehicle sales in the US as a measure of economic activity. Only because a very large percentage of these sales will be going to Government agencies, on top of that, defaults are escalating in the private market. People may be buying cars, but they sure as hell can't afford them.

It's like using the real estate market as a measure of economic performance in 2005.