Does Zelda U Have a Chance At 5Mil+ Lifetime WW? (Or Close To It)

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Based on VGC data over the last few generations here is a ratio of MK sales : Zelda sales (top selling Zelda of the generation)

 

Platform	MK (million)	Zelda (million)	Ratio
NES	0	6.5	0
SNES	8.76	4.61	1.90
N64	9.87	7.6	1.30
GC	6.95	4.6	1.51
Wii	35.13	7.08	4.96
Average	15.2	6.1	2.4
Ave excl Wii	8.5	5.8	1.6

As MK Wii is an outlier I believe the averages excluding Wii are better to use as an indicator.

MK U is currently at nearly 4.5 million, but it is continuing to sell well so it will probably get to 6 million at least.

We can see a clear pattern. MK always sells better than Zelda, and the ratio (excluding Wii) ranges from 1.3:1 to 1.9:1 with an average sales ratio of 1.6:1.

If we assume WIi U approximates to GC as they are likely to end up with similar install bases then we can estimate that MK U will get to about 7 million. If we use the average MK:Zelda ratio this indicates Zelda U should sell around 4.4M. If it gets a similar sales ratio to GC then we should expect Zelda U to sell around 4.65M.

Again assuming MK U gets to 7 million, for Zelda to crack 5 million the ratio will need to be 1.4:1. This is within the historical Zelda:MK range. So 5M is very possible assuming MK gets to 7M. If MK get to 8M then the ratio would only need to be the MK:Zelda average for Zelda to get to 5M. If MK U only reaches 6M then the ratio would need to be 1.2:1 which is a ratio Zelda has never achieved.

Zelda is a very stable franchise which has not seen a great deal of growth over the generations, with OOT being really the only game that significantly stood above the rest.

I think Zelda U 5 million+ is possible, but unlikely.