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Maybe I am too optimistic, but I am still hoping for a 8m sales for Wii U and 10m for PS4.

We should remember than in the last gen the total sales landed at ~25m (13m Wii, 10m PS3, 2m X360) in the end, and even though the market has shrunk I do believe that the PS4 could be able to match the PS3 at 8-10m, the Wii U will sell almost half of the Wii, perhaps 6-8m, but I hope more. And the X1, 0.5-1m at the very best I would think. And this would give us a total of 14.5-19m consoles.

Down 5-10m since last gen.

Something in me also says that the PS4 could even sell more than the PS3, but I am not willing to bet on it. The Japanese market will be really interesting to see how it ends up after this generation though.