How well do you think the economy is going in the next few years?

[Mr Khan]

mai said:

TheWPCTraveler said:

(No poll since I want explanations.)

I find it rather strange that I don't see a lot of discussion about the economy (in particular the consumption side of things) apart from the bottom lines of the companies involved. So, I just want to ask how you think the economy would go in the next few years, and maybe the impact on ourselves.

To make it simple, let's divide this into the three regions we normally track here:

US: I don't think the economy will be able to sustain the momentum it had in 2014. The shale oil boom is starting to blow up due to low oil prices, and...I just don't think that QE is working for the typical consumer.

EU: It'll be flat and stay flat. I doubt Grexit will happen while Tsipras is in power, though.

Japan: I don't think Abenomics is working, the economy will stay flat because everyone else is doing it now.

...or something like that. It'd be interesting to see how people here perceive the way the economy is going.

If CBs of all three are currently buying their own debt they're issuing how do you think this's going to end? Not pretty, it's a sign of an endgame.

I'm pretty sure that I gave my prognosis over here already (not really mine, but smth that I find plausible like many others do) that endgame for the US will be a yoy three-digit hyperinflation, at least it's the best among other options. Hard to say when, but politically wise make sense to blame everyhting on the lame duck, in other words sometime before next administration.

Hyperinflation in the U.S. case is virtually impossible unless the U.S. dollar falls out of favor as the denomination of choice in world markets (although i know you feel that is already happening, so there's that), meaning that U.S. accumulates a lot of debt denominated in other currencies, and then that this debt comes due for some reason, forcing rapid money-printing to try and inflate the debt away, which causes a sudden and massive breach in confidence.